The Monthly Market Update is part of our ongoing commitment to investor education and research. These posts often spark discussion and provide insight into our perspective on current financial markets and economic events.
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This month’s macroeconomic discussion is centered on the recent government shutdown, Federal Reserve policy, and consumer dynamics. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history concluded after 43 days, following Congress’s approval of a stopgap spending bill effective through January 30. While the shutdown itself was not a major market driver, it resulted in a significant […]
The Federal Reserve delivered its second consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut on October 29, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%–4%. However, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that another cut in December is “not a foregone conclusion,” reflecting a growing divide among policymakers. The decision comes amid persistent inflation—CPI rose to 3% year-over-year in […]
Continue Reading ›The third quarter saw continued momentum in the AI trade, falling interest rates, and more trade deals reached with foreign nations. In September, the Fed announced its first rate cut of 2025, cutting the policy rate by 0.25%. This cut was widely expected given weak employment data. As rate cuts materialize, stocks and the economy […]
Continue Reading ›U.S. stocks continued to grind higher in August, with the S&P 500 advancing 1.9% and notching a new record high late in the month. The Dow and Nasdaq also posted gains, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase for the major indices. Volatility remained muted as investors weighed a mix of softer labor data, ongoing debate […]
Continue Reading ›Stocks crept higher through July, with the S&P 500 notching numerous successive all-time highs and closing up 2.2% from the end of June. One driver of the market’s performance was favorable tariff news. Notable trade deals were announced with major U.S. trading partners in July, namely Japan, South Korea, and the European Union. The market […]
Continue Reading ›Stocks saw steep declines early in the second quarter as the severity of the April 2nd tariff announcements caught investors by surprise. These new tariffs included broad-based import duties as well as targeted levies on steel, aluminum, and autos. By April 8th, the S&P 500 was down 11.2% from the start of the quarter and […]
Continue Reading ›Stock markets recovered in May with the S&P 500 closing up 6.3%. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is now up, albeit only 1.1%. A stronger than expected earnings season and favorable tariff news were contributors to the recovery. News related to U.S. budget deficits also impacted markets. The last of the three major credit rating agencies, […]
Continue Reading ›The month of April produced the highest level of stock market volatility in recent memory. The announcement of higher-than-expected tariffs on imports coming into the U.S. on April 2nd triggered a nearly 15% drop in the S&P 500 in three trading days. The bottom on April 7th did prove to be the low point for […]
Continue Reading ›The S&P 500 entered correction territory in March, at one point declining -10% from its February all-time high. For historical context, the average intra-year decline since 1980 is -14%. With stock valuations already elevated by historical standards, increased policy uncertainty and concerns about potentially slower AI investment contributed to the selloff. Among the many policy […]
Continue Reading ›U.S. equity markets finished February slightly lower, with the S&P 500 down 1.3%. The technology sector, which comprises about 1/3 of the S&P 500 index, was also down 1.3%, driving the selloff. Investors continued to exercise caution around active international trade negotiations while weighing potential economic policy changes. The chart below shows the Economic Policy […]
Continue Reading ›Markets rebounded in January from a December pullback as investors digested Trump’s day-one executive orders and solid earnings results from the banking sector. At the very end of the month, tariffs for Mexico, Canada, and China were announced. In response, each nation announced or said they will announce retaliatory tariffs or other trade restrictions. Uncertainty […]
Continue Reading ›U.S. stock markets had a second consecutive year of strong gains in 2024 with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finishing up 25.02% and 14.99% respectively. Strong economic growth, moderating inflation, and improving labor productivity were key factors supporting market strength. Throughout 2024 market valuations climbed to levels last seen during 2020-2021 when […]
Continue Reading ›The beginning of November saw Trump retake the White House along with the Republican party taking control of both the House and Senate by slim margins. What followed has been coined the “Trump Trade,” as markets initially responded positively to the victory. The S&P 500 rose 5% from the 4th to the 11th before cooling […]
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