The Monthly Market Update is part of our ongoing commitment to investor education and research. These posts often spark discussion and provide insight into our perspective on current financial markets and economic events.
Most Recent Update
The S&P 500 entered correction territory in March, at one point declining -10% from its February all-time high. For historical context, the average intra-year decline since 1980 is -14%. With stock valuations already elevated by historical standards, increased policy uncertainty and concerns about potentially slower AI investment contributed to the selloff. Among the many policy […]
Like most Americans we are grateful the election will be over on November 8. That said, we continue to maintain that history is the best resource as to the stock market’s reaction to whoever wins the White House. We have reviewed the market’s performance in past election cycles and found the underlying trend of the […]
Continue Reading ›The third quarter could not match the excitement generated by the surprise vote by the UK to exit the European Union, but the looming presidential election in the US has now taken center stage as the most important geopolitical event on the horizon. Past reviews of how the financial markets react to the eventual winner […]
Continue Reading ›After a strong but unexpected rally following the Brexit vote in late June, stocks have spent the past month and a half treading water. A market technician will call this sideways pattern a “consolidation” of the surge to new record highs, while investors prefer to call the period boring. Boring beats volatile and the market […]
Continue Reading ›The strong (yet improbable) post-Brexit rally continued into mid-July, buoyed by a swift installation of a new government in London and improving economic indicators in the US, Europe and Japan. US stocks reached new all-time highs on July 20th, representing a rally of nearly 9% from the post-Brexit lows of June 27th. Stocks began to […]
Continue Reading ›The second quarter had shaped up to be quite an uneventful period until the June 23 vote by Britain to leave the European Union. The surprise result created extreme volatility in global financial markets, as investors sold stocks, bought government bonds and dumped the Pound Sterling in favor of the Dollar and Yen. UK Prime […]
Continue Reading ›We have been discussing oil prices in monthly Dashboards consistently over the past two years since the price of crude began declining from nearly $107 per barrel in June 2014 to a low of $26.14 this past February. Several of our posts mentioned that while the price decline was triggered by massive new supplies of […]
Continue Reading ›Stocks had a very rough start to 2016, with twin declines of nearly 10% in January and February. The rally in oil (up 68% from its low of $26.14) that began on February 11th helped propel the major averages to modest gains by mid-April. Stocks finished the month of April slightly below those highs and […]
Continue Reading ›After a very rough start to the New Year, stocks staged a recovery from their lows on February 11 (the broader market was down over 11% since December 31). Besides recession fears and renewed worries about the Euro-area banking system, crude oil was the main culprit in leading the market decline and also served as […]
Continue Reading ›Financial markets staged a strong rally in February and early March as oil prices rebounded (the strong link with stock prices continues to persist) amid talk of OPEC members discussing coordinated cuts in their production. These rumors have popped up regularly since oil prices began their drop in mid-2014 and none have come to […]
Continue Reading ›Price movements by stocks and oil have continued their symbiotic relationship into the New Year. Stocks and oil prices moved in tandem a record 35% of the trading days in 2015. That ratio jumped to 68% in January. It’s difficult to imagine the US has become a global oil power and that our fortunes […]
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