Yearly Archives: 2016

Investors welcomed the New Year with the major US indexes at record levels, an unexpected event after a year of many unexpected events (e.g., Brexit, Chicago Cubs, Trump). The broader-based S&P 500 Index recorded its sixth best year of the millennium, amid optimism the malaise that has been the norm for most of this period […]

The election is finally over and like us you probably noticed a result not unlike the Brexit vote: the outcome probably surprised you, no matter which side you voted for, and after a large initial decline the stock market quickly rebounded. The S&P 500 had a 3.70% total return for the month, crossing 2,200 for […]

Like most Americans we are grateful the election will be over on November 8. That said, we continue to maintain that history is the best resource as to the stock market’s reaction to whoever wins the White House. We have reviewed the market’s performance in past election cycles and found the underlying trend of the […]

The third quarter could not match the excitement generated by the surprise vote by the UK to exit the European Union, but the looming presidential election in the US has now taken center stage as the most important geopolitical event on the horizon. Past reviews of how the financial markets react to the eventual winner […]

After a strong but unexpected rally following the Brexit vote in late June, stocks have spent the past month and a half treading water. A market technician will call this sideways pattern a “consolidation” of the surge to new record highs, while investors prefer to call the period boring. Boring beats volatile and the market […]

The strong (yet improbable) post-Brexit rally continued into mid-July, buoyed by a swift installation of a new government in London and improving economic indicators in the US, Europe and Japan. US stocks reached new all-time highs on July 20th, representing a rally of nearly 9% from the post-Brexit lows of June 27th. Stocks began to […]

The second quarter had shaped up to be quite an uneventful period until the June 23 vote by Britain to leave the European Union.  The surprise result created extreme volatility in global financial markets, as investors sold stocks, bought government bonds and dumped the Pound Sterling in favor of the Dollar and Yen.  UK Prime […]

We have been discussing oil prices in monthly Dashboards consistently over the past two years since the price of crude began declining from nearly $107 per barrel in June 2014 to a low of $26.14 this past February.  Several of our posts mentioned that while the price decline was triggered by massive new supplies of […]

After a very rough start to the New Year, stocks staged a recovery from their lows on February 11 (the broader market was down over 11% since December 31).  Besides recession fears and renewed worries about the Euro-area banking system, crude oil was the main culprit in leading the market decline and also served as […]

  Financial markets staged a strong rally in February and early March as oil prices rebounded (the strong link with stock prices continues to persist) amid talk of OPEC members discussing coordinated cuts in their production.  These rumors have popped up regularly since oil prices began their drop in mid-2014 and none have come to […]

  Price movements by stocks and oil have continued their symbiotic relationship into the New Year.   Stocks and oil prices moved in tandem a record 35% of the trading days in 2015.  That ratio jumped to 68% in January.   It’s difficult to imagine the US has become a global oil power and that our fortunes […]